Elections rock Italy

Di Maio wins. Italy ungovernable.' Daily newspaper with that headline The print Monday, March 5, summarized the situation created by the elections the day before. In the exit polls of Sunday evening, March 4, there did not seem to be a political landslide yet, but as is often the case, the polls were also wrong this time.

Winner: Five Star Movement

The big winner is indeed Luigi Di Maio, the capo politico of the Five Star Movement (M5S), which became by far the largest party with 32%. But the result of the Lega (17%) is also surprising. The former northern separatist movement is gradually starting to gain a foothold in the south, where the M5S is also supreme. Together, the anti-establishment parties receive half of the votes. A clear call for a new course. But which way? That's the question now.

Dramatic result for PD

For the Partito Democratico (PD) the result is dramatic. The party of Prime Minister Gentiloni and – above all – of his predecessor Renzi plummeted from 41% in the 2014 European elections to 19%, less than half. The PD is not the first social-democratic party to experience something like this, but it is reason for Renzi to start thinking seriously about the future of his party and himself.

Matteo Salvini

No less surprising is the poor result of Forza Italia (FI): 14%. No poll had announced it, but FI is now clearly inferior to coalition partner Lega. It seems that many right-wing voters have preferred the young power figure Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, to the now 81-year-old founder and foreman of FI, Silvio Berlusconi, whose hold on the Italian politics, although unexpectedly, has now become very weak.

What's next?

That's the big question. None of the three major blocs that faced each other in these elections – center-right (FI, Lega and some minor parties); M5S: Center Left (PD plus a few satellites) – has won a majority, so a coalition will have to be formed. But which?

The moderate PD+FI variant, which seemed the most likely at the start of the campaign, is impossible: the two have too few seats for that. Lega and M5S have enough, even if Brussels would not like to see that because of their euro-critical stance. Moreover, Salvini has already let it be known that he doesn't feel like it. Then there is the possibility of an agreement between M5S and PD, but there would be a lot of resistance within the PD. Or a grand coalition of FI, Lega and PD, which also seems unlikely at the moment.

In short, it will be puzzles and talking, but it is still a bit early to declare the country 'ungovernable'.

The new parliament will meet on March 23. Then the floor is given to President Mattarella, who must appoint a formateur after a series of talks. He's going to have a hard time with it.